There is a reality check unfolding in the response to the climate crisis. Many countries and corporations are falling short of the goals set by international leaders at the 2015 Paris Agreement. Without a significant change in direction, the consequences could be severe and damaging. The potential return of Donald Trump and increasing global instability make it challenging to imagine the urgent top-down action required. Finding optimism is increasingly difficult.
However, progress is being made. A prevailing narrative suggests that renewable energy and clean solutions have done little to replace fossil fuels and are therefore futile. This narrative, promoted by figures like Tony Blair and former U.S. government adviser Daniel Yergin, and embraced by the fossil fuel industry and some commentators, is used to criticize zero emissions targets. In Australia, this view is part of the debate as the Albanese government considers emissions reduction targets for 2035.
The situation is more complex than it appears. Here are important considerations if you hear climate action is pointless.
Clean Energy Targets Fossil Fuels
A prevailing argument claims that the proportion of global energy from fossil fuels has barely changed over the last 35 years. Critics say that dirty fuels supplied 85% of energy in 1990 and still account for 80% today.
This perspective overlooks an important detail. Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, explains that these statistics refer to primary energy—raw coal, crude oil, gas, wood, sun, or wind—rather than useful energy, which is energy converted into a form that is then consumed by users.
Useful energy is more relevant. The process of converting raw fossil fuels into useful energy is often inefficient. More energy is lost generating power at a distant coal-fired plant and transmitting it than if solar, wind, or hydro were used. Petrol cars consume more energy per kilometer than electric vehicles.
If we focus on useful energy, Liebreich points out that fossil fuels account for about 68% instead of 80%. Although still high, this share is expected to decrease. Despite the discussion of new coal plants, they are not significantly altering the landscape. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts solar and wind will supply over 90% of the global increase in electricity demand this year. The output from solar and wind is expected to rise by about 25%, from 4,000 terawatt-hours to more than 5,000, with another 20% increase anticipated next year, exceeding 6,000 TWh.
The IEA projects renewable energy output, including solar, wind, and hydro, will surpass coal by 2025 or 2026. For the first time in a century, coal’s share of electricity will fall below 33%. Solar and wind together will reach nearly 20%, up from 4% a decade ago.
A crucial question is whether this growth in renewables will reduce global fossil fuel use or simply meet rising energy demand. Liebreich argues that fossil fuel use will decline, suggesting it may start to fall in the 2040s and could be phased out by around 2065. While this is slower than scientists say is necessary to limit warming to 1.5C, it counters the notion that a global transition is impossible.
China’s Evolving Energy Landscape
With a population of 1.4 billion and a significant manufacturing role, China is the largest national climate polluter, emitting more than double the CO2 of the U.S. Its situation is complex, but progress is evident. An analysis by China experts Qi Qin and Lauri Myllyvirta for Carbon Brief noted coal’s share in China’s power generation dropped from 73% in 2016 to 51% by June this year. China continued to build new coal plants but does not operate them at full capacity.
Earlier this year, China’s national emissions fell for the first time, declining by 1% in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Beijing must do more to fulfill its Paris Agreement commitments, with its upcoming five-year economic development plan being crucial.
Decline in Sales of Combustion Engine Cars
Data from Our World in Data shows global sales of internal combustion engine cars peaked in 2016 at 80.47 million, while electric and plug-in hybrid sales stood at 780,000. Last year, combustion car sales dropped 23% to 62.05 million, while electric and hybrid sales rose to 17.5 million.
A decade ago, only 1 in 100 cars sold was electric, but now it’s more than 1 in 5. Although issues like Elon Musk’s recent controversies may impact Tesla, growth continues. China, home to over 60% of global EV sales, has little interest in Teslas.
Challenges Ahead
The scale of the climate problem remains vast. This column previously reported on significant global warming since June 2023, with average temperatures in 2024 at least 1.25C above preindustrial levels and three-quarters reaching 1.5C hotter.
Extreme weather is increasingly destructive, and feedback loops such as melting permafrost and wildfires release additional CO2. Governments are just beginning to acknowledge the expected increase in economic, societal, and environmental costs impacting productivity and other areas.
The challenges are extensive, but don’t believe the claims that action is impossible or futile.